Coupled Global Climate Model 3

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

Coupled Global Climate Model 3

Projected change in 5-year mean surface air temperature (K) in 2000-2100 relative to 1981-2000 as simulated by CGCM3/T47 in the IPCC SRES B1 experiment (5-member ensemble mean)

These animations show the 5-member ensemble mean change (relative to the average of 1981-2000) in the 5-year running mean surface air temperature simulated in the IPCC SRES B1 experiment with CGCM3.

Note that there is more warming over land and polar regions than over the oceans. The rapidly varying jumpy features of the animation are caused by natural variations (year-to-year changes in weather patterns) that are simulated by the climate model. Natural variation is also the cause of the differences between the three simulations. These variations which are also part of the observed climate system, make it difficult to project possible future climate change in detail.

Data from these and other simulations are available for downloading from our data section.