Coupled Global Climate Model 1
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Five-year mean near surface temperature (°C) relative to 1971-1990, as simulated by CGCM1 in a transient climate change experiment
This animation shows the change (relative to average of 1971-1990) over the North American region in the 5-year running mean near surface air temperature simulated in three transient climate change simulations with CGCM1. These experiments use observed greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing changes between 1850 and 1985, and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing change for 1986 to 2100. For more details please see our First Generation Coupled Model (CGCM1) page.
Note that surface air temperature changes accelerate with time and that there is more warming over land and polar regions than over the oceans. The rapidly varying jumpy features of the animation are caused by natural variations (year-to-year changes in weather patterns) that are simulated by the climate model. Natural variation is also the cause of the differences between the three simulations. These variations which are also part of the observed climate system, make it difficult to project possible future climate change in detail.
The data from these transient simulations with the coupled model are available for downloading from our data section.