Coupled Global Climate Model 1
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Projected change in near surface air temperature (°C) for 1990-2100 as simulated with CGCM1 in a transient climate change experiment
This animation shows the change (relative to average of 1971-1990) in the 5-year running mean surface air temperature simulated in a transient climate change experiment with CGCM1. This experiment uses observed greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing changes between 1850 and 1985, and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing change for 1986 to 2100. For more details please see our First Generation Coupled Model (CGCM1) page.
Note that surface air temperature changes accelerate with time and that there is more warming over land and polar regions than over the oceans. The rapidly varying jumpy features of the animation are caused by natural variations (year-to-year changes in weather patterns) that are simulated by the climate model. These variations which are also part of the observed climate system, make it difficult to project possible future climate change in detail.
The data from this transient simulation with the coupled model are available for downloading from our data section.